By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) The current bull market is emulating a bicycle race’s paceline, where the front rider expends energy to drive forward, creating a slipstream for the riders behind before rotating to the back to rest while another rider picks up the effort. Ether (ETH) took the leader’s duties over the weekend. The second-largest cryptocurrency rose from $4,000 to over $4,300, dragging along bitcoin (BTC), which had been struggling to extend gains. Early this morning, BTC rotated to the front, rising from $119,000 to $122,300. “This is one of the few times when a rally in major altcoins has inspired BTC to break through. It’s usually the other way around,” Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior analyst at the FxPro, said in an email. “Altcoins are mostly staying out of this race for now, taking a break after last week’s rally.” BTC’s ascent continues to be driven by spot market demand, as evidenced by the narrowing ratio between trading volumes in futures and spot markets. The ratio has dropped to the lowest since 2022, according to Swissblock Technologies. Still, at least two factors call for caution on the part of the bulls. Firstly, according to Coinglass, bitcoin is still trading at a discount on Coinbase relative to Binance, a sign of weak demand from U.S.-based institutions. Secondly, cumulative spot and futures trading volumes are notably lower than in July (see Chart of the Day), when prices first topped $120,000, according to Swissblock Technologies. This negative volume divergence indicates weaker buying pressure. The bullish mood remains more pronounced in ether than bitcoin. On Deribit, the notional open interest in ether calls is nearly 2.3 times greater than in ether puts. The figure for bitcoin is well below 2. ETH’s rise is supported by on-chain activity, with daily transaction volume on the network hitting records and the number of new addresses nearing the high reached four years ago. Still, ether appears vulnerable to pullbacks because 97% of ETH-holding addresses are “in-the-money,” according to Sentora. In other words, the current price is above the acquisition cost of most addresses, which means there is a strong incentive for these holders to take profits. A similar trend exists for XRP, the payments-focused cryptocurrency, which lagged over the weekend but rose 3% early Monday. Speaking of the broader altcoin market, it could soon have its time because BTC’s dominance rate is close to breaching a key support. (Check the Technical Analysis section.) In traditional markets, the U.S. two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to short-term interest-rate expectations, held below its 200-day average for the first time since 2022. The decline is consistent with expectations for Fed interest-rate cuts. The case for a September reduction has strengthened, with some analysts suggesting that even a hotter-than-expected CPI release this week would not deter the Fed from easing. Stay alert! What to Watch Crypto Aug. 15: Record date for the next FTX distribution to holders of allowed Class 5 Customer Entitlement, Class 6 General Unsecured and Convenience Claims who meet pre-distribution requirements. Aug. 18: Coinbase Derivatives will launch nano SOL and nano XRP U.S. perpetual-style futures. Aug. 20: Qubic (QUBIC), the fastest blockchain ever recorded, at over 15 million transactions per second and powered by Useful Proof of Work (UPoW), will undergo its first yearly halving event as part of a controlled emission model. Although gross emissions remain fixed at 1 trillion QUBIC tokens per week, the adaptive burn rate approved by the network’s Computors, the key validators and decision makers, will increase substantially — burning some 28.75 trillion tokens and reducing net effective emissions to about 21.25 trillion tokens. Macro Aug. 12: The U.S.-China trade truce, which temporarily reduced reciprocal tariffs from triple-digit levels to about 30%, is set to expire. Many analysts say they expect President Donald Trump to extend the truce by another 90 days as both sides seek to avoid escalating the trade war. Aug. 12, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases July consumer price inflation data. Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.24% Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 5.35% Aug. 12, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases July consumer price inflation data. Core Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.3% vs. Prev. 0.2% Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 2.9% Inflation Rate MoM Est. 0.2% vs. Prev. 0.3% Inflation Rate YoY Est. 2.8% vs. Prev. 2.7% Aug. 13, 3 p.m.: Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census releases July inflation data. Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 1.6% Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 39.4% Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) Aug. 11: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market, $0.12 Aug. 12: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market, -$0.02 Aug. 12: Fold Holdings (FLD), post-market Aug. 14: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market Aug. 15: Sharplink Gaming (SBET), pre-market Aug. 15: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.07 Aug. 18: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market, -$0.12 Token Events Governance votes & calls Compound DAO is voting to appoint ChainSecurity and Certora as joint security provers with ZeroShadow handling incident response under a $2 million, 12-month COMP-streamed budget starting Aug. 18. Voting ends Aug. 13. Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Lido to host a tokenholder update Call. Aug. 14, 10 a.m.: Stacks to host a townhall meeting. Unlocks Aug. 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $53.38 million. Aug. 15: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $40.35 million. Aug. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.53% of its circulating supply worth $17.36 million. Aug. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 0.96% of its circulating supply worth $17.81 million. Aug. 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.8% of its circulating supply worth $42.77 million. Aug. 18: Fasttoken (FTN) to unlock 4.64% of its circulating supply worth $91.6 million. Token Launches Aug. 11: SatLayer (SLAY) and Celeb Protocol (XCX) to be listed on Binance Alpha. Conferences The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers