With US inflation center stage and oil-market supply guidance due, this is a data-heavy week where macro can decide whether Bitcoin’s tight consolidation resolves into fresh highs and the broader crypto market continues to explode further. Crypto Market Braces For Major Week The July Consumer Price Index arrives Tuesday, August 12, at 14:30 CEST (08:30 ET). The median economist call leans toward a firmer core and a still-contained headline: Bloomberg’s survey points to a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core CPI, while several desks expect headline CPI at 0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y after 2.7% in June. The Cleveland Fed’s real-time nowcast is in the same ballpark on the year-over-year prints, showing ~2.7% for headline and ~3.0% for core going into the release. The schedule is official; the nuance is that a 0.3% core m/m is consistent with core holding near 3% y/y, which markets would read as sticky but not re-accelerating—until tariffs or energy change the calculus. Producer prices follow Thursday, August 14, also at 14:30 CEST (08:30 ET). Consensus pegs PPI final demand near +0.2% m/m after a flat June; the Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed the timing and flagged methodology changes that take effect with this release. Taken with CPI, a 0.2% PPI would imply only modest pipeline pressure—unless services margins surprise. Retail’s read-through for demand lands Friday, August 15, at 14:30 CEST (08:30 ET). The street is looking for +0.5% m/m on headline retail sales, with many desks also watching the control group for a steady goods-spending pulse after June’s 0.5%. One hour later, at 16:00 CEST (10:00 ET), the University of Michigan prints its preliminary August sentiment; July’s improvement into the low-60s set the base. None of these are binary for crypto, but a hot sales beat against a 0.3% core CPI would harden “higher-for-longer” rate chatter; a cooler mix would do the opposite. Energy is the wild card. OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report publishes Tuesday, August 12, with July’s edition having kept 2025 demand growth steady at ~1.3 mb/d; the cadence of OPEC+ supply guidance and the IEA’s Oil Market Report on Wednesday, August 13, will feed directly into headline-inflation expectations via the gasoline channel. The exact release dates are fixed on OPEC’s calendar and the IEA data portal. On crypto-native flows, FTX’s estate has set Friday, August 15 as the record date for its next cash distribution cycle, with disbursements expected to begin on or about September 30, 2025. The step is funded by a court-authorized $1.9 billion reduction of the disputed claims reserve (to $4.3B), and payments will route via BitGo, Kraken and Payoneer for eligible, fully onboarded claimants. Practically, that means Aug. 15 determines who’s in line; the actual liquidity arrives at quarter-end. Ethereum’s specific catalyst is corporate-treasury optics. SharpLink Gaming (Nasdaq: SBET)—which has been publishing weekly accumulation tallies—will hold its Q2 2025 call on Friday, August 15, at 14:30 CEST (08:30 ET). The company disclosed 521,939 ETH on the balance sheet as of August 3, alongside ongoing capital raises to expand that treasury. Any change in pace, staking strategy or financing mix could move the “ETH as a balance-sheet asset” narrative. Technically, Bitcoin sits a stone’s throw from July’s record at $123,153. Aksel Kibar, CMT, characterized the past week’s pause as “a text-book pullback to the neckline,” adding that “monitoring the chart for acceleration this week. Breach of 123.2K (minor high) can resume uptrend.” At press time, BTC traded at $121,699. Powered by WPeMatico

Samson Mow, a well-known Bitcoin entrepreneur and founder/CEO of JAN3, warned that recent gains in Ether could be short lived as some investors move profits back into Bitcoin. According to his post, many ETH buyers already hold Bitcoin — often from ICOs or insider positions — and are rotating that BTC into ETH to drive prices up. He argued that once Ether reaches a high enough level, those same holders may sell, leaving a fresh set of buyers holding the bag. “No one wants ETH in the long run,” he wrote, and he called the selling pressure near big price marks a “Bagholder’s Dilemma.” ETH/BTC Moves Raise Questions Based on reports, the ETH/BTC ratio has jumped to about 0.036 on TradingView, up from a five-and-a-half-year low of 0.018 in April. That rise has come while Ether surged in price; the token topped $4,310 in late trading on Sunday and posted a weekly gain of 21%. Let me explain what’s happening with ETHBTC. Most ETH holders have a lot of BTC (ICO/insiders) and they are rotating that BTC into ETH to pump it on new narratives (Ethereum Treasury co’s). Once they’ve gotten it high enough, they’ll dump their ETH, creating new generational… — Samson Mow (@Excellion) August 10, 2025 Those numbers put Ether roughly 10% from its 2021 all-time high of $4,880. For proponents of Bitcoin, those shifts look like a rotation back to altcoins that could reverse once sellers take profits. Some market watchers read the same facts differently. They see the recent ETH surge as a bullish sign and expect a more complex cycle: Ether could hit a fresh peak and spark a mini altseason. After that, capital may flow back into Bitcoin until BTC reaches about $140,000, before rotating again into Ether and other altcoins — a back-and-forth that has played out in past bull runs and makes a neat, one-way trade unlikely. Flows, Use Cases And On-Chain Signals Reports have disclosed that institutional interest and new strategies are also part of the story. Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, pointed to institutional demand and “strategy reserve plays” as drivers behind Ether’s climb to $4,300. According to Ruk, higher interest has helped DeFi platforms lift total value locked. Staking, yield tactics and burning of fees change supply dynamics compared with earlier cycles, and those factors make today’s rally different from the ICO-era rotations Mow described. Technical signals add another layer. Ether’s weekly candle closed at levels not seen since November 2021, which gives momentum traders something to watch. At the same time, Bitcoin dominance has slid by about 10% since late June, showing capital has already shifted into altcoins in recent weeks. Those two trends can coexist — strong ETH momentum plus a still-present risk that profit-taking will trigger a reversal. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView Powered by WPeMatico

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